Risk Disclosure

Last updated: March 2026

This Risk Disclosure outlines the potential risks associated with prediction market trading and the use of MarketEdge arbitrage alerts. Please read this document carefully before using the Service.

Arbitrage Is Not Risk-Free

While arbitrage strategies aim to exploit pricing discrepancies for a mathematically guaranteed profit, real-world execution introduces risks that can reduce or eliminate expected returns. The term "guaranteed" in our alerts refers to the theoretical outcome if both positions are filled at the displayed prices — actual results may differ.

Market and Execution Risks

• Price movement: Market prices can change rapidly. The prices shown in an alert may no longer be available by the time you attempt to execute a trade.
• Liquidity risk: Some markets have lower liquidity, meaning you may not be able to fill your order at the displayed price, or at all. Partial fills can leave you with an unhedged position.
• Slippage: Large orders relative to market depth may cause price slippage, reducing your effective spread.
• Capital lock-up: Funds committed to prediction market positions may be locked until the market resolves, which could be weeks or months. You may not be able to access that capital during this period.

Platform Risks

• Exchange risk: You are relying on third-party platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket) to honor contracts and process settlements. Platform outages, insolvency, or regulatory actions could affect your positions.
• Smart contract risk: Polymarket operates on blockchain infrastructure. Smart contract bugs, network congestion, or bridge failures could result in loss of funds.
• Market resolution disputes: Prediction markets occasionally have disputed resolutions. If a market resolves differently than expected or is voided, your arbitrage position may not pay out as calculated.

Regulatory Risks

Prediction markets operate in a rapidly evolving regulatory environment. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC in the United States. Polymarket is not available to US residents. Regulatory changes in your jurisdiction could restrict your ability to trade on these platforms or affect the availability of the Service. You are solely responsible for ensuring your use of prediction markets complies with applicable laws.

Service and Data Risks

• AI and data errors: Arbitrage opportunities are identified using AI-powered scanning. Even with human review, there may be errors in market matching, price data, or profit calculations. Always verify opportunities independently on the source platforms before trading.
• Service availability: MarketEdge may experience downtime, delays, or interruptions. We do not guarantee continuous or real-time availability of alerts.
• Stale data: Market data is fetched at regular intervals. Prices displayed in alerts may be seconds or minutes old.

Your Responsibilities

• Verify all opportunities independently before placing any trades.
• Only trade with capital you can afford to lose or have locked up for an extended period.
• Understand the mechanics of each platform (order types, fees, settlement timelines) before trading.
• Do your own research. MarketEdge is an informational tool, not a trading platform or financial advisor.

No Guarantee of Returns

Past arbitrage opportunities do not guarantee future results. Market conditions change, and the frequency and profitability of opportunities can vary significantly over time. You should not rely on MarketEdge as your sole source of trading decisions.

Acknowledgment

By using MarketEdge, you acknowledge that you have read and understood this Risk Disclosure, and you accept full responsibility for your trading decisions and their outcomes. MarketEdge and its operators are not liable for any financial losses you may incur.